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Bitcoin's price history shows a repeating pattern of multi-year bull and bear phases. AEON's Cycle Tracker maps where the current cycle sits against that history — here's the methodology behind it.
The tracker classifies the current market into a bull or bear phase based on price action relative to the prior all-time high and the trajectory since the last major cycle turn. Once a bear phase is identified, it tracks days in against the average historical bear duration, giving a rough sense of how far through the cycle the market currently is.
Three prior cycles anchor the comparison:
| Cycle | Return |
|---|---|
| 2015–2017 | +8447% |
| 2018–2021 | +1567% |
| 2022–Now | +287% |
A monthly performance chart overlays the current cycle against the 2021 and 2017 bear markets specifically, so you can see whether the current drawdown trajectory is running faster, slower, or roughly in line with prior cycles at the same day count.
The projected bear low is a blended estimate derived from the 2018–2022 historical pattern — not a prediction in the sense of "the price will be exactly this." It's a reference point: if the current cycle behaves similarly to the historical average, this is roughly where the drawdown leg would bottom. The days left (est.) figure works the same way, extrapolated from average historical bear duration minus days already elapsed.
Cycle projections are historical pattern-matching, not forecasts. Every cycle has differed from the ones before it in duration, depth, and cause. Treat the projected low and days-remaining figures as context, not a target to trade against.
The same framework runs independently for BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL, since each asset's historical cycle timing and drawdown depth differs. A drawdown-leg tracker with projected rally windows sits alongside the main phase view for each.
Cycle phase is macro context, not an execution signal — pair it with the signal engine for entry timing rather than trading off cycle position alone.