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By the time a market maker's selling shows up in the order book, it's already moving price. On-chain, their intent is often visible minutes — sometimes hours — earlier.
Every transfer on a public blockchain is visible to anyone — the challenge isn't access to the data, it's knowing whose wallet you're looking at. On-chain wallet tracking starts with a curated list of known addresses belonging to market makers, funds, and exchanges, then watches those specific addresses for movement, tagging each transfer by what it likely means before it turns into visible price action.
A known wallet sends funds to an exchange deposit address. Often precedes selling, since assets typically need to be on-exchange to be sold — though it can also mean collateral posting or trading, not necessarily an exit.
A known wallet withdraws from an exchange to a private address. Often read as bullish or as intent to hold, since it removes sellable supply from the order book — though it can also reflect a custody or cold-storage move.
Movement between two non-exchange addresses. Usually the least directional signal on its own — could be an OTC settlement, an internal reshuffle, or a transfer to a new custody wallet — but worth noting alongside other flow.
AEON tracks known market-maker and institutional entity wallets — firms like Wintermute, GSR, Jump Trading, and Cumberland — along with major exchange hot wallets. These entities collectively route a large share of daily spot and derivatives liquidity, so their wallet activity tends to be a leading indicator rather than noise: they're moving size to reposition, not to speculate on a few hundred dollars of movement.
This is deliberately narrower than generic "whale alert" feeds that flag any large transfer regardless of sender. A $50M transfer from an unlabeled address tells you very little. The same transfer from a wallet tagged to a known market maker, moving to a specific exchange, tells you something you can actually act on.
A single inflow or outflow is a data point, not a signal. The same $10M inflow from a market-maker wallet means something different depending on: whether it happened alongside a CVD divergence at the same price level, whether it's the entity's first large move in weeks or a routine recurring pattern, and whether multiple tracked wallets are moving the same direction at once. Reading wallet flow in isolation — without that context — is the most common way to over-interpret a single transfer.
The same absorption logic that drives CVD divergence detection extends on-chain: a tracked outflow coinciding with passive buy absorption on the order book is a stronger combined read than either signal alone. Wallet transfers are shown as a live tagged feed — entity, direction, size, and destination — rather than a raw block explorer dump, so the signal is legible without needing to manually look up addresses.
Wallet flow feeds into the same MM Monitor that tracks CVD divergence and regime detection — it's read as one more input alongside order-flow, not as a standalone alert to trade off of by itself.
Wallet labels can go stale, and intent can't be read with certainty. Entities occasionally rotate addresses, and a transfer's purpose (collateral, OTC, custody, trading) isn't always knowable from the chain alone. Treat tagged flow as directional context, not proof of an upcoming trade.